ENTRY NAME: YES ON 126, PROTECT ARIZONA TAXPAYERS

Arizona Proposition 126, the Prohibit New or Increased Taxes on Services Initiative, was on the ballot in Arizona as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 6, 2018. A “yes” vote supported this constitutional amendment to prohibit the state and local governments from enacting new taxes or increasing tax rates on services performed in the state.

 

PARTY AFFILIATION

Not applicable.

 

CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVE

The objective of the mail campaign was to persuade voters to say “Yes” to change the AZ Constitution to prohibit the state and local governments from enacting new taxes or increasing tax rates on services performed, such as realtor services, haircuts, dry cleaning, landscaping, plumbing, childcare, healthcare, etc.

 

IMPACT OF THE CAMPAIGN

The issue was polled by the campaign in June of 2018 and showed 39% support. Even at the end of September when Suffolk University polled the issue it was still showing below 50% support with 21% undecided.

 

The digital campaign launched the last week in September. The digital targeting methodology consisted of a support model that was built to find likely supporters and was combined with an Enthusiasm Adjusted Turnout (EAT) model. EAT is a model that was built to reflect in-cycle voter enthusiasm. It was updated regularly and after key events such as the Kavanaugh hearing. These scores blended together helped to target a precise audience of likely voters through mail and digital that were apt to support Proposition 126 and not be a drop-off voter.

 

On Election Day, the final tally showed that in the span of 6 weeks the campaign persuaded a significant percentage of the undecideds to support the issue resulting in a positive outcome for the campaign.

 

DID THE CAMPAIGN WIN?

Yes on 126 won handily, 64.72% yes to 35.28% no.